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WMP Weekly Commentary - JANUARY 22, 2024

| January 22, 2024

The Markets

Are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic?

Consumers are a force to be reckoned with – and we’re all consumers. We buy coats and tweezers, electricity and bread, screens and fishing poles. We download apps and games and educational materials. As consumers, we are vital to the American economy. In fact, consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy when it’s measured using gross domestic product or GDP.

Many consumers are feeling more optimistic than they have in a while. Last week, the University of Michigan (UM) reported that consumer sentiment is soaring. After a double-digit rise in December 2023, the UM Consumer Sentiment Index rose an additional 13 percent in January 2024. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu reported:

“Over the last two months, sentiment has climbed a cumulative 29%, the largest two-month increase since 1991 as a recession ended. For the second straight month, all five index components rose, with a 27% surge in the short-run outlook for business conditions and a 14% gain in current personal finances. Like December, there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography.”

Investors are feeling pretty good, too. Throughout January, the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment survey found that a higher percentage of investors than usual expected stocks to move higher over the next six months. Last week, though, that percentage dropped lower as uncertainty increased around the depth and timing of possible Federal Reserve rate cuts.

“…the median projection from all Fed officials [is] for three rate cuts in 2024. That is a more conservative outlook than the one shared by investors, who expect six cuts starting in March,” according to a source cited by Jennifer Schonberger of Yahoo! Finance.

Last week, a rally in technology stocks helped the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index close at an all-time high. Yields on many maturities of Treasuries moved higher over the week.


Data as of 1/19/24

1-Week

YTD

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor's 500 Index

1.2%

1.5%

24.1%

8.4%

13.0%

10.1%

Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index

-2.2

-3.2

2.5

-3.3

2.8

1.3

10-year Treasury Note (yield only)

4.2

N/A

3.4

1.1

2.7

2.8

Gold (per ounce)

-1.3

-2.4

5.7

3.4

9.7

4.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index

-1.2

-1.9

-13.5

6.5

3.9

-2.5

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.


IT’S THE BIGGEST ELECTION YEAR IN HISTORY. This year almost 80 countries will hold elections in which all people of voting age will have the opportunity to cast a vote, reported NPR citing The Economist. While the nations are not all democratic countries, more than 40 are expected to hold free and fair elections, reported Astha Rajvanshi and Yasmeen Serhan of Time. These nations encompass about:

  • 41 percent of the world’s population (more than 3 billion people), and
  • 42 percent of the global economy (more than $44 trillion).

How many people will actually vote?

The voter turnout is likely to be higher in some countries than it is in others. Here is the average turnout among the voting-age population in a sampling of countries that will hold elections in 2024. (The data was collected from recent election years by Pew Research Center.)

Turkey:                    89 percent

Indonesia:                82 percent

Sweden:                  80 percent

Belgium:                  78 percent

South Korea:           77 percent

Denmark:                76 percent

Brazil:                      74 percent

Taiwan:                   74 percent

India:                       69 percent

Mexico:                    66 percent

Austria:                    64 percent

United States:          63 percent

Britain:                     62 percent

Czech Republic:      62 percent

South Africa:            47 percent

The U.S. League of Women Voters explains the importance of voting like this, “The right to vote is one of the most basic promises of our democracy. In a democratic government, every person is considered equal and is empowered to both participate in their government and speak on the issues that impact their daily lives. Through our votes, we’re able to express our values around concerns like health care, climate change, criminal justice, taxes, and so much more.”

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Indecision may or may not be my problem.”

 

Culinary Curiosity of the Week

 

Everything You Need to Know About Different Types of Tea

From oolong to matcha to masala chai, the world of tea can be daunting. Here's how to navigate the many types of tea out there if you're just starting.

By Max Falkowitzand Melissa Jeanette Markert 

 Updated on September 13, 2023

Do you like tea? Of course you do. Even if it's not, like, your thing, it's hard to deny the soothing and comforting properties of a warm cup of fragrant tea. Known as chai in many parts of the world, tea is one of the world's most popular drinks and is grown on every continent, save Antarctica.

Tea is a generous drink. With only a third or so the caffeine of coffee, it offers a gentler path to a morning jolt, allowing you to drink more and more often — especially good as many tea leaves can be steeped several times before depleting their flavor. Different types of tea are also rich in a substance called l-theanine, an amino acid that studies have linked with feelings of calm and well-being. Research continues to shed light on the health benefits of tea, confirming what I’ve been telling the people who attend my tea talks and classes for years: good tea makes you feel good.

That's really all you need to know to get started drinking different types of tea. With hundreds of styles and varieties made across the world, and about as many methods of brewing it, there's no right or wrong way to enjoy a cup of tea. It does, however, help to know some basics when navigating a category this vast. Tea is the world's most popular drink behind water after all, and is grown on every continent, save Antarctica.

Every type of tea — green, black, oolong, and then some — is a product of the same plant, a shrub called Camellia sinensis that's native to a band of subtropical land stretching from eastern India through northern Laos and Vietnam into southwestern China. The differences in flavor come down to nuances of plant variety, growing conditions, and processing style. (Herbal and grain teas are a separate story — more on those down below.) You can group most "true" teas into a few broad categories based on processing method. Here's how to make sense of it all.

Green tea

Just like slicing open an apple, plucking a tea leaf starts the clock on a complex set of oxidative and enzymatic reactions that ends with brown plant tissue and distinctly different flavors and aromas from when the leaf was first picked. The goal of making green tea is to halt these reactions as quickly as possible, preserving the leaf's vegetal flavor. Green teas can taste like spring peas, fresh cut grass, gently toasted hazelnut, and even brackish seaweed floating in broth. Quality greens are intensely aromatic and sweet on the tongue.

Studies suggest that stopping the oxidation process early during tea production can result in a high concentration of polyphenols — potent antioxidants that offer a range of health benefits. More research is needed, however, to draw a definitive conclusion, so drink green tea for the taste or experience. I enjoy Japanese styles like sencha and gyokuro, which possess a deep umami sweetness, as well as lighter Chinese styles like bi luo chun and tai ping hou kui, the latter of which is made of large alluring leaves pressed flat as a bookmark.

Black tea

If you let fresh tea leaves oxidize all the way, then proceed with drying them, you get green tea's opposite: black tea. That oxidation, along with careful rolling and kneading of the leaves, develops malty and tannic compounds along with fruity and chocolate flavors. Black tea processing also leads to stronger flavors and fuller body across the board, which is why it takes so well to milk (fresh or condensed), sugar, honey, spices, and — my favorite — a spoonful of raspberry jam, Russian style.

Black tea from China was the preferred drink of Britons in the 19th century as it was less likely to mold on long ocean voyages. When planters in British colonies in India, Sri Lanka, and Kenya struggled to figure out how to process all the types of tea they'd stolen from China and conscripted natives to plant on their home soil, black tea was the style they converted to mass production. To this day, the Indian regions of Assam and Darjeeling produce some of the world's most recognized black tea; the former especially brisk and malty, the latter famously nuanced and delicate. Chinese black tea styles like mao feng and keemun yield baked plum and chocolate flavors. But my ride-or-die black teas come from Taiwan. Cultivars from the Sun Moon Lake region are outrageously aromatic, full of ripe cherry and spice, and a body so rich you'd swear there was sugar mixed in.

Oolong tea

If green teas are barely oxidized, and black teas are almost completely oxidized, oolong teas lie in between. Oolongs vastly range in flavor and aroma depending on idiosyncratic differences in how they're processed. Like making the perfect omelet, the steps to wither, knead, fire, roll, dry, and roast oolong take a day to learn but a lifetime to master. The category is so complex and poorly understood in the West that there's not even an English word for it; the closest translation of the Mandarin "wu long" is "dark dragon," a reference to the serpentine shape of certain oolong tea styles made in Fujian Province.

In Taiwan, high mountain oolongs may look almost as green as green tea, but tiny nudges of oxidation have transformed crisp and grassy flavors into creamy, buttery ones with a strong floral lilt. Delicate bao zhong from the north of the island is intensely redolent of jasmine, while older styles like dong ding and tieguanyin are more oxidized and consequently nutty, trading the high aromatics of their less oxidized peers for richer body and a long lasting finish. In China, roasting oolong is as important a skill as making it. Heavily roasted oolongs from the Wuyi cliffs smolder with whisky-like flavors of caramel, leather, and a touch of mineral brine.

White tea

Where oolongs are all about intensive processing, white teas emphasize letting nature take its course. Plucked tea leaves are air dried with minimal processing, either in the sun or with powerful air vents. As they dry, the leaves undergo a slight oxidation, developing a rich, creamy body and subtle floral flavors. With the exception of coarser leaf grades like gong mei and shou mei, white teas are pretty delicate. Silver needle is made exclusively from unopened buds and is the most delicate of all, with a marshmallowy sweetness and aroma of fresh linens. Bai mu dan, also called white peony, is more overtly floral.

Chai

The word "chai" has different meanings throughout the world. In Hindi, the word "chai" translates to "tea," originating from the Chinese word for tea, "cha." If you've ever said the phrase "chai tea," you were literally saying "tea tea."

Masala Chai, a creamy and fragrant drink made by brewing black tea with spices, herbs, milk, and sugar, is a beloved treat throughout Southeast Asia. In Western cultures, this beverage is commonly known simply as "chai" and is typically flavored with aromatic baking spices such as cinnamon, cardamom, and clove. It is often served as an indulgent latte made with velvety steamed milk, similar to espresso-based drinks.

Fermented and aged tea

A number of traditional teas are aged for months, years, or even decades before drinking. While green teas and lighter oolongs are best enjoyed fresh, several white, black, and oolong styles can develop new depths with age. There are also teas that undergo bacterial and fungal activity during aging, thanks to processing methods that don't completely kill off the microscopic organisms naturally present in tea leaves. These teas don't yield alcohol or lactic acids like fermenting beer or pickles, but they're fermented nonetheless. Some celebrated vintages sell at auction for tens of thousands of dollars per pound.

The most famous of these fermented teas is pu-erh, which is made in China's Yunnan Province and nearby regions of Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. This tea begins its life as more or less a green tea, but through aging it sheds its grassy flavors for the rich depth of varnished wood, old leather, and mellow earthiness. My personal favorite, liu an, goes through a similar process, and is aged in small bamboo baskets lined with bamboo leaves that you can brew with the tea. Note that this is a different thing from Burmese fermented tea leaves, which are lactofermented before mixing into salads, and not used for tea.

Other notable tea styles

The categories above are generally considered the five major types of tea, but like any human-made taxonomy, they don't account for every possible kind of tea out there. Yellow tea is a niche but traditional style in China, with processing similar to green tea but with some extra steps to smother and sweat the leaves, yielding a less sharp, more rounded tea that's neither green nor white. Meanwhile, a Korean tea called hwangcha, aka yellow tea, is processed entirely differently from Chinese yellow tea and can actually taste more like oolong or black tea. (The Korean tea-making tradition, while intertwined with China's and Japan's, is very much its own thing, and Korean styles don't fit neatly into Chinese or British categories.)

In the Darjeeling hills, the first flush, or harvest of the year, is processed into a tea that's sold as "black tea" but is really nothing of the sort — it's heavily withered but barely rolled or oxidized. The leaves retain spots of green and brew up a pale amber, with fresh piney flavors not quite like anything else. Some people try to call it a white tea or an oolong, but it can't be categorized as either. And don't get me started on awabancha, a Japanese tea that is actually pickled and meant to be brewed. Point being, tea is a vast, intricate aspect of the human endeavor and doesn't always fit into neat boxes!

Herbal and grain tea

Often called tisanes or herbal infusions to distinguish themselves from Camellia sinensis teas, brews made from herbs, flowers, and grains are likely as old as "proper" tea itself. Tea leaves were consumed as a medicine long before they were a beverage, and many popular herbal teas were originally made for medicinal purposes. You probably already know the common types like chamomilemint, and rose hip, but you may also want to seek out elderflowerGreek mountain herb tea, and chrysanthemum, all of which have strong fans around the world.

There are also a number of teas made from roasted grains that are especially popular in Korea and Japan. Barleytartary buckwheatJob's tears, and even corn silk all make soothing, naturally rich brews. Even better, these brews are fantastically refreshing when cold steeped or iced, making them the perfect caffeine-free drink to make by the pitcher and enjoy on a hot summer day.

Best regards,

Wealth Managing Partners, Inc.

Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research, Inc, a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Wealth Managing Partners, Inc., are not affiliated. #6187142-4 01222024

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA#0

http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-will-likely-cut-rates-in-2024-but-wont-be-rushed-waller-162058939.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=premium (or go tohttps://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/01-22-24_Bloomberg_S&P%20500%20Hits%20All%20TIme%20High_5.pdf)

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202401

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/03/1198909517/1a-draft-01-03-2024

https://time.com/6551743/2024-elections-democracy-trump-putin/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/01-22-24_Time_A%20Make%20or%20Break%20Year%20for%20Democracy_8.pdf)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/brace-for-elections-40-countries-are-voting-in-2024 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/01-22-24_Bloomberg_Brace%20for%20Elections_9.pdf)

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/01/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries/ft_22-10-17_globalturnout_dot/

https://www.lwv.org/voting-rights

https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/indecision-quotes     

https://www.foodandwine.com/tea/different-types-of-tea